Highlights

• • Market implies ~73.9% for Sabalenka; we estimate ~68.0%
• • Required decimal odds to beat the book are ≥1.471 for Sabalenka

Pros

• + Sabalenka's power and serve profile suits hard courts
• + Market price reflects her status as clear favourite, which is reasonable given surface

Cons

• - Current odds are too short vs our estimated probability, producing a negative EV
• - Research provides limited and ambiguous recent-form data and no H2H, raising uncertainty

Details

The market prices Aryna Sabalenka at 1.353 (implied ~73.9%). After accounting for surface (hard favors big servers/power), both players' profiles showing mixed recent form in the research, and Pegula's consistency, we estimate Sabalenka's true win probability at ~68.0%. That implies fair odds of ~1.471, which are longer than the current market price; therefore the current Sabalenka price of 1.353 offers negative expected value. Given limited and ambiguous recent-form data in the research and no H2H detail, we avoid recommending a side because the favourite is over-priced relative to our estimate.

Key factors

• • Surface: outdoor hard, which generally favors big servers/power players like Sabalenka
• • Recent form in the supplied research is mixed for both players, reducing confidence in a large edge
• • No H2H or clear injury information in the research increases uncertainty and downside risk