Highlights

• • Market-implied home win ~61.9% vs our estimate 45%
• • Fair decimal needed for value ~2.222, well above current 1.617

Pros

• + Home/favourite status likely reflected in market price
• + Lahey has match experience on clay/hard surfaces listed

Cons

• - Recent results show multiple losses and weak form
• - Insufficient data on Ella McDonald to justify laying significant market probability

Details

We estimate the market is over-favouring Ashley Lahey at the quoted home price. The current home decimal 1.617 implies a win probability of ~61.9%, but Lahey's documented form (10-21 career record, multiple recent losses on hard courts and generally weak recent results) does not support that high a chance. We conservatively estimate Lahey's true win probability at 45% (0.45) given the available information and the lack of any positive recent results or H2H/context on the opponent. At that probability the fair price would be ~2.222 decimal; the offered 1.617 produces a substantial negative expected value, so we recommend no side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Lahey's overall record is weak (10-21) with poor recent form
• • Market-implied probability (61.9% at 1.617) materially exceeds our estimate
• • Very limited information on the opponent increases uncertainty and reduces confidence in the market price