Highlights

• • Implied probability for home at 2.49 is ~40.2%; our estimate is 48%
• • Positive EV of ~0.195 (19.5% ROI) at current home odds

Pros

• + Current price (2.49) sufficiently above our min_required_decimal_odds (2.083)
• + Both players' records and recent form in the dataset are nearly indistinguishable, supporting a correction to the market gap

Cons

• - Research data is sparse — no ranking, head-to-head or location/context details to increase confidence
• - If undisclosed factors (injury, ranking, seeding) favor the away player, the estimated probability could be too generous

Details

We estimate value on Astrid Cirotte (home). The market prices Victoria Pohle as a clear favorite (implied ~68%), but the available research shows both players have nearly identical profiles: similar career spans, nearly identical win-loss records (10-21 vs 10-22), the same surfaces played, and matching recent results. There is no evidence in the provided data of a material performance, surface, or injury edge for Pohle to justify such a large gap. Normalizing that lack of differentiators leads us to a near-even true probability split; conservatively we estimate Astrid Cirotte's true win probability at 48% versus the implied 40.2% from the 2.49 decimal price, producing positive expected value. With current home odds 2.49 the EV = 0.48 * 2.49 - 1 = +0.195 (19.5% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side only because expected_value > 0 at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Both players show almost identical records and recent results in the provided data
• • No injury, surface, or head-to-head advantage present in the research to justify the favorite's price
• • Market implies a large edge for the away player (overround); available info suggests closer to even odds