Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for Ana is 12.5%; we estimate ~18%
• • Minimum fair odds for Ana at our estimate are ~5.556; current 8.00 offers clear theoretical value

Pros

• + Large edge between implied probability and our estimated probability yields strong theoretical ROI
• + Ana has shown winning ability on the relevant surfaces in career data, supporting a non-trivial upset chance

Cons

• - Ana's sample size is very small (31 matches) and recent results in the provided data include losses, increasing uncertainty
• - Unknown match conditions (surface/fitness) and Astrid's much greater experience could reduce upset probability below our estimate

Details

The market prices Astrid Wanja Brune Olsen at 1.07 (implied win probability 93.5%) and Ana Filipa Santos at 8.00 (implied 12.5%). From the provided profiles, Astrid has a long, established career (559-507 over 1,066 matches, ~52% career win rate) while Ana is early in her career (10-21 over 31 matches, ~32% career win rate). Those raw career rates alone would not justify a 93% chance for Astrid; they suggest a meaningful upset probability for Ana well above 12.5%. Adjusting for Astrid's much greater experience we conservatively estimate Ana's true chance to be 18% (0.18), which is significantly higher than the market-implied 12.5%. At decimal odds 8.00 this produces expected value EV = 0.18 * 8.00 - 1 = 0.44 (44% ROI per unit stake). The minimum decimal odds to make an Ana bet positive EV at our probability is 1 / 0.18 = 5.556, well below the available 8.00. We therefore identify the away price as value, while noting important downsides (small sample for Ana, uncertain surface and form).

Key factors

• • Astrid is vastly more experienced (1,066 matches vs 31) but career win rates (52% vs 32%) do not justify a 93% market probability
• • Ana's career win rate (32%) and competence on clay/hard suggest upset probability materially above the 12.5% implied by 8.0
• • Recent form in the provided records shows both players with recent losses, reducing confidence in an overwhelming favorite and increasing upset variance