Astrid Cirotte vs Fiona Ganz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Astrid Cirotte at 2.88 because the market overprices Fiona despite nearly identical profiles; a conservative 48% win estimate for Astrid yields a positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies Astrid ≈34.7%; our estimate ≈48%
- • Backing Astrid at 2.88 gives ~0.382 units EV per 1 unit staked
Pros
- + Clear numerical mismatch between market price and modeled win probability
- + No injury or surface advantage information in research to justify heavy favoritism for Fiona
Cons
- - Research data is sparse and symmetrical; hidden factors (rank, coaching, match-up specifics) could justify the market
- - Small sample and identical records increase model uncertainty
Details
We view Astrid Cirotte as the value play. The research files show both players with essentially identical career spans, surface experience (clay and hard), and recent records (10-21), with no injury notes or clear form edge for Fiona Ganz. The market currently prices Fiona at 1.373 (implied ~73% raw) and Astrid at 2.88 (implied ~34.7%), which appears to overstate the favorite given the symmetric profiles available. Conservatively estimating Astrid's true win probability at 48% (reflecting parity between players but giving slight weight to home/underdog variance and absence of differentiating data), backing Astrid at 2.88 yields positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side because the market price requires Astrid to be no better than ~34.7% to break even, and our modelled probability comfortably exceeds that threshold.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21)
- • No injuries or head-to-head data provided to justify heavy market favoritism for Fiona
- • Market-implied probability for Astrid (≈34.7%) is well below our conservative true estimate (48%)