Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Petra Marcinko

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Petra (~90.9%) contradicts the provided profiles showing similar records.
• • Break-even odds for Astrid are ~2.857; current 6.0 is well above that threshold.

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current odds (EV = +1.10).
• + Decision is driven by parity in the supplied data — no clear evidence to justify heavy favoritism.

Cons

• - Research set is sparse and lacks head-to-head, ranking or injury details — uncertainty is high.
• - Heavy market support for Petra could reflect external information not in the provided sources, making this a higher-risk contrarian play.

Details

We find clear value backing Astrid Lew Yan Foon at the 6.0 moneyline. The available profiles for both players show near-identical records and recent form (10-21 overall, recent losses), giving no strong data-based justification for the market to price Petra Marcinko at ~1.10 (implied ~90.9%). Given the lack of distinguishing information (no H2H, similar surfaces played, similar recent results), we assign a more conservative true win probability to Petra of ~65% and to Astrid of ~35%. That implies Astrid should be priced around 2.857 in decimal odds. At the offered 6.0, Astrid's price implies only ~16.7% chance, so the market appears heavily skewed and offers large positive expected value on the home side. Calculations: EV for Astrid = 0.35 * 6.0 - 1 = 1.10 (110% ROI per unit staked). Because our model is driven solely by the provided data and sees no support for Petra being a >90% favorite, we recommend taking the home under these prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies Petra ~90.9% which is unsupported by the provided player records
• • Both players have similar overall records and recent results in the provided data
• • Home price 6.0 is far above our break-even threshold (2.857) so offers strong theoretical value