Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.34) = ~74.6%; our conservative estimate = 70%
• • EV on the favorite at current price is negative (~ -6.2% ROI)

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home player, suggesting relative strength
• + Odds are stable and widely available, so execution risk is low if value existed

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific data increases model uncertainty
• - Current prices don't offer margin over our conservative probability estimates

Details

We compared the quoted moneyline prices to conservative win-probability estimates given that no match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) is available. The market price for the home player (1.34) implies a win probability of ~74.6%. Without supporting information that would push our confidence above that level, we adopt a conservative true probability of 70% for the home player. At p=0.70 the expected value on the home price 1.34 is negative (EV = 0.70*1.34 - 1 = -0.062). The away price (3.05, implied ~32.8%) would require an estimated true probability above ~32.8% to be +EV; given the heavy favorite status and lack of disconfirming evidence, we estimate the away true probability at ~30%, which also yields negative EV. Because neither side shows positive expected value against current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific information available (surface, fitness, H2H, form)
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.34) is ~74.6%; we conservatively estimate 70%
• • High uncertainty in lower-tier events increases required margin for a value call