Highlights

• • Weber is the clear on-paper favorite with strong market support
• • Sharma's 1-8 record and recent losses on hard surfaces justify the long price

Pros

• + Market price for Weber minimizes variance but offers no positive expected return at 1.04
• + Sharma's big odds reflect real performance deficits, so the longshot is not mispriced

Cons

• - No detectable value at available prices — betting would be negative expectancy
• - Small sample sizes for both players introduce uncertainty around the exact true probability

Details

We compare market prices (Away Arthur Weber 1.04, Home Atharva Sharma 9.0) to our win-probability estimates derived from the provided form and career summaries. Sharma has a 1-8 career record and very weak recent form on hard courts, suggesting a true win probability near his historical win rate (~11%). Weber has a substantially larger sample (15-14) and better form relative to Sharma; we estimate Weber's true win probability at 95%. The market-implied probability for Weber at 1.04 is ~96.15%, which slightly overstates his edge relative to our 95% estimate, producing a small negative EV on the favorite (EV = 0.95 * 1.04 - 1 = -0.012). The longshot (Sharma) at 9.0 implies ~11.1% — essentially equal to Sharma's historical win rate from the research — so no value there either. Given both sides are fairly efficiently priced versus our probabilities, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Atharva Sharma's poor overall record (1-8) and recent losses on hard courts
• • Arthur Weber has a larger match sample (29 matches) and a stronger win record (15-14)
• • Market heavily favors Weber (1.04) and implied probability (~96.2%) is slightly higher than our estimate