Attila Boros vs Karim Ibrahim
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We identify value on the home player (Attila Boros) at 1.30: our estimated win probability (82%) yields ~6.6% ROI versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Ibrahim's 5-16 record and recent hard-court losses point to a sub-20% win chance
- • Bookmakers price the home at 1.30 (76.9% implied); our model gives 82% -> positive EV
Pros
- + Clear discrepancy between market-implied probability and assessed true probability
- + Opponent's documented poor form and record support the favorite
Cons
- - Limited public data on Attila Boros increases model uncertainty
- - Small-sample variance in lower-tier events can produce surprising upsets
Details
We compare the market price to a win-probability derived from Karim Ibrahim's documented results. Ibrahim's career record (5-16) and recent hard-court losses indicate a well-below-50% true win rate — we estimate his chance here around 18%, implying Attila Boros' win probability ~82%. The market-implied probability for the home player at 1.30 is ~76.9%, which is lower than our estimated 82%, creating positive expected value. We also note the market shows an overround (~8.5%), so the listed prices slightly understate favorite value; even after accounting for that, the 1.30 price offers value versus our assessed probability.
Key factors
- • Karim Ibrahim career record 5-16 suggests low baseline win rate
- • Recent results on hard courts are losses, weakening Ibrahim's chances
- • Current market odds (1.30) imply ~76.9% vs our 82% estimate = positive edge