Highlights

• • Book odds (2.75) are well above our fair threshold (2.222) for Chanta
• • Profiles show no clear head-to-head or injury edge for the favorite

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current widely-available price
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces value

Cons

• - Limited match-context and small-sample career records increase uncertainty
• - Recent form for both players shows more losses than wins, raising variance

Details

We estimate this matchup is far closer than the market suggests. The books price Yeon Woo Ku at 1.40 (implied ~71.4%) while Aunchisa Chanta is 2.75 (implied ~36.4%). The available profiles show near-identical career records (both 10-21) and similar surface experience with no reported injuries or clear edges in recent results, so we view the true probability of Chanta winning materially higher than the market-implied 36%. Using a conservative estimate that Chanta has a 45% chance to win, the current home decimal price of 2.75 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.75 - 1 = +0.2375). The minimum fair decimal odds for that probability is 2.222, so 2.75 represents a clear overlay. We remain cautious given small-sample records and limited additional match context, but at the quoted price the home underdog offers value.

Key factors

• • Near-identical career records and recent results for both players (10-21), implying a close matchup
• • No reported injuries or clear surface advantage in the provided data, reducing rationale for a large market gap
• • Market implies a heavy favorite for the away player (1.40); our conservative win probability (45%) for the home player creates value