Highlights

• • Both players have identical recorded results in the supplied research
• • Away price (2.6) implies a materially lower probability than our estimate

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current available price (≈+30% ROI per unit)
• + No research evidence in favor of the listed favourite to justify the low favorite price

Cons

• - Limited data depth in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - If unprovided factors (injury, travel, head-to-head history) favor the home player, value evaporates

Details

We find value backing the away player, Yuhan Wang, because the public market (home 1.44 / away 2.6) prices the match heavily toward the favourite despite the research showing near-identical profiles and recent results for both players. The two players have the same 10-21 career record and similar surface experience in the provided data, with no injury or form edge documented for the home player. The away price of 2.6 implies a win probability of ~38.5%, but those on-paper data points support a much closer contest (~50/50). Using a 50% true win probability for the away side produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.50 * 2.6 - 1 = +0.30), so the current away price looks like a clear value bet under our conservative estimate.

Key factors

• • Research shows both players with identical 10-21 records and similar recent match logs
• • No documented injuries, home-court advantage, or significant form edge in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors home (implied away probability ~38.5%) despite on-paper parity
• • Conservative true probability estimate of 50% for the away player produces positive EV