Highlights

• • Tanisha: 10-21 career record (≈32% wins)
• • Aurora @ 2.81 implies ~35.6% chance vs our estimate ~67.7% — sizable value opportunity

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current market price (≈90% ROI by our estimate)
• + Clear discrepancy between market-implied probability and Kashyap's documented win rate

Cons

• - No performance, ranking, or injury data provided for Aurora Nosei—high model uncertainty
• - Small sample size and limited context (only one player's profile) increases risk of misestimation

Details

We base our true probability primarily on the only provided player data: Tanisha Kashyap has a career record of 10-21 across 31 matches (≈32.3% win rate) and has shown poor recent form with losses in early September 2025. No profile or performance data for Aurora Nosei was provided, so we use the complement of Kashyap's observed win rate to estimate Aurora's win probability. Market odds (Aurora 2.81, Tanisha 1.376) imply probabilities of ≈35.6% for Aurora and ≈72.7% for Tanisha; this heavily favors Kashyap despite her weak recorded win rate. Using Kashyap's career win-rate (10/31 ≈ 0.323) implies Aurora's win probability ≈ 0.677, which makes the home price 2.81 a clear value (EV = 0.677 * 2.81 - 1 ≈ +0.903 or ~90.3% ROI). We therefore recommend Aurora at the current market price because the market appears to overestimate Kashyap based on the available data. This recommendation carries significant uncertainty because it relies on a single opponent profile and lacks direct data on Aurora Nosei (ranking, form, injuries, H2H).

Key factors

• • Tanisha Kashyap career win rate 10-21 (≈32.3%) across 31 matches
• • Recent losses in early September 2025 indicate poor form
• • Market heavily favors Kashyap (implied ~72.7%) despite weak record, creating value on Aurora
• • No provided data on Aurora Nosei; estimate uses complement probability which increases uncertainty