Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (79.4%) exceeds our conservative estimate (72%).
• • EV at current odds is negative (-0.093), so no value now.

Pros

• + Aurora Urso priced as a clear favorite, which is consistent with our higher probability estimate.
• + Low volatility in outcome expected when favorite is clearly stronger.

Cons

• - Current odds do not offer positive expected value based on conservative assumptions.
• - No match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to justify raising our probability estimate.

Details

We estimate Aurora Urso is the stronger favorite but with limited/no external data we adopt a conservative true-win probability of 72.0% for the home player. The market price of 1.26 implies a 79.4% probability (1/1.26 = 0.7937). Using our estimated probability (0.72) the expected ROI at the current price would be EV = 0.72 * 1.26 - 1 = -0.093 (negative), so there is no value at the quoted odds. For a value bet on Aurora Urso we would need decimal odds ≥ 1.389 (1 / 0.72). Given the lack of injury, surface, form, and H2H data, we avoid forcing a bet and recommend waiting for improved odds or more information.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data available; we use conservative priors
• • Market heavily favors home: implied probability ~79.4% at 1.26
• • Our conservative estimated win probability (72%) is below market-implied threshold for positive EV