Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability (89.3%) > our estimated true probability (88.0%)
• • Required decimal odds for positive EV on the favorite would be ≥ 1.136

Pros

• + Market consensus strongly favors the away player, reflecting a likely real skill gap
• + If more positive information on the underdog appears, the long price (5.80) could present value

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price leaves no margin for error — tiny misestimate flips EV negative
• - Lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data prevents confident identification of value

Details

Market prices make Masha Lazarenko a very heavy favorite at 1.12 (implied ~89.3%). With no external data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) we apply conservative assumptions: we assign Masha an estimated true win probability of 88.0%. At the quoted 1.12 decimal, EV = 0.88 * 1.12 - 1 = -0.0144 (negative). The home price (5.80) implies a very small upset probability; without supporting information to justify a substantially higher true chance for Aurora Urso, backing the underdog is not prudent. Because the market price is slightly more optimistic about the favorite than our conservative estimate, there is no value at current quotes.

Key factors

• • No additional match data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) — must be conservative
• • Market heavily favors away at 1.12 (implied ~89.3%)
• • Our conservative estimated win probability for the favorite (88.0%) is below the market-implied level, yielding negative EV