Aurora Zantedeschi vs Tatiana Pieri
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Aurora Zantedeschi at 2.49 — our estimated win probability (47.5%) implies a required price of ~2.105 for break-even, so current odds provide positive EV.
Highlights
- • Aurora estimated true win probability 47.5% vs market implied 40.2%
- • Backing Aurora at 2.49 yields ~18.3% ROI on our estimate
Pros
- + Priceable underdog with a plausible small edge by our assessment
- + Market overprices the away favorite given matched records and form
Cons
- - Both players show poor recent form — greater variance and match risk
- - Edge is modest and based on limited differentiating data in the research
Details
Both players have nearly identical career records (Aurora 10-22, Tatiana 10-21) and recent results show a run of losses on hard courts for each, so there is no clear performance gap in the research. The market however prices Tatiana as a strong favorite (1.543, implied 64.8%) while Aurora is at 2.49 (implied 40.2%). Given the parity in records and form, we assign Aurora a higher true win probability than the market implies (47.5%), driven by a small home advantage and the lack of evidence for a substantive superiority from Tatiana. At our estimate Aurora at 2.49 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.183 per unit), while backing Tatiana at 1.543 shows negative EV. We therefore recommend taking the home moneyline only if current prices are around 2.49 or higher.
Key factors
- • Nearly identical career records and recent form for both players
- • Market heavily favors Tatiana; implied probability looks overstated
- • Small home advantage and surface neutrality justify slight edge to Aurora