Highlights

• • Current market strongly favors Aurora (1.07) implying ~93.5% chance
• • Our conservative estimated probability (65%) shows a large gap and negative EV

Pros

• + If Aurora truly is overwhelming favorite, market will be correct — low variance on heavy favorite
• + Short price minimizes variance for a live portfolio if the bookmaker is right

Cons

• - No publicly available match data to justify the extreme market price
• - At current odds Aurora offers strongly negative expected value vs our conservative probability

Details

We see a market price that strongly favors Aurora at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%). However, there are no recent web sources, form, roster, or head-to-head details available to justify such an extreme market probability. Conservatively, we estimate Aurora's true win probability at 65% given the uncertainty and typical variance in Dota 2 matches (especially at major events). At that estimate the market price is overpriced on the favorite and offers negative expectation: 0.65 * 1.07 - 1 = -0.305. To find positive EV on Aurora we would need much longer odds. Given the high uncertainty and the large gap between market-implied probability and our conservative estimate, we do not recommend taking the favorite at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external data (injuries, form, H2H) available — high informational uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (1.07 -> ~93.5%) is extreme and likely overstates the favorite
• • Even a conservative true probability (65%) produces negative EV at current prices