Highlights

• • Normalized fair probability for Aurora ≈ 58%; required break-even probability vs listed home odds is ≈ 60.8%
• • Both sides produce ~-4.6% ROI under our conservative model, so no value at current prices

Pros

• + Clear, conservative normalization of bookie margin prevents overestimating value
• + Avoids speculative edges in absence of form/injury/H2H data

Cons

• - Lack of external/team-specific data reduces model sensitivity to real edges
• - If undisclosed information exists (late roster changes, patch advantages), our conservative stance may miss genuine value

Details

We compared the market decimals (Home 1.645, Away 2.27) to a conservative fair-probability estimate. Implied probabilities are ~60.8% (home) and ~44.1% (away) with a bookmaker margin ~4.8%; normalizing those implies a fair win probability ~58.0% for Aurora and ~42.0% for Xtreme. Using the normalized estimate, the home-side EV at the listed price would be 0.58*1.645 - 1 = -0.046 (≈ -4.6% ROI), and the away-side EV would be 0.42*2.27 - 1 = -0.047 (≈ -4.7% ROI). With no external form, injury, or H2H data available, and applying conservative assumptions, neither side shows positive expected value at the current prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market shows a ~4.8% bookmaker margin; normalize implied probabilities before estimating fair odds
• • Conservative fair estimate gives Aurora ~58% chance, below the break-even threshold vs listed favorite odds
• • No external information on roster changes, form, or venue was available; we avoid speculative adjustments