Highlights

• • Market-implied Aurora probability ~75.5%; our conservative estimate 70.0%
• • Both sides produce negative EV at current odds (Home ≈ -7.3%, Away ≈ -0.7%)

Pros

• + Clear numerical comparison between market odds and conservative probability
• + Conservative stance avoids overbetting on incomplete information

Cons

• - No live/fresh data or matchup specifics to refine probabilities
• - Small gaps (especially for the away side) could flip with new information or slightly better odds

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 1.325, Away 3.31) to a conservative, internally derived probability split given the lack of external information. The market-implied probabilities are about 75.5% for Aurora (1/1.325 = 0.7547) and 30.2% for Yakutou Brothers (1/3.31 = 0.3021), producing an over-round of ~5.7%. With no additional intel on form, roster changes, or matchup specifics, we apply a conservative true probability of 70.0% for the home side (Aurora) and 30.0% for the away side. Under those estimates the expected returns are negative for both sides at current prices: Home EV = 0.70 * 1.325 - 1 = -0.0725 (≈ -7.25% ROI) and Away EV = 0.30 * 3.31 - 1 = -0.0070 (≈ -0.70% ROI). Because neither side yields positive expected value at the quoted odds, we do not recommend a bet. We note the market is slightly more optimistic on Aurora than our conservative estimate; if you can obtain home odds >= 1.429 or away odds >= 3.333, value would emerge.

Key factors

• • No external data available — we use conservative, assumption-driven probabilities
• • Market shows a ~5.7% over-round (prices incorporate a book margin)
• • Under our 70/30 split neither side offers positive EV at current odds