Ava Hrastar vs Lavinia Luciano
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the market overstates Ava Hrastar's chances; fair odds are closer to 1.67, so we recommend no bet now.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~84% for Ava but our estimate is ~60%
- • Fair decimal price ~1.667; current 1.186 is overpriced for the favorite
Pros
- + Ava is the market favorite and likely perceived as stronger by bettors/oddsmakers
- + No injury flags reported in the provided research
Cons
- - Player profiles show almost identical records and recent poor form for both
- - Current odds for the favorite leave no positive expected value
Details
Market prices make Ava Hrastar a heavy favorite at decimal 1.186 (implied ~84.3%), but the available player profiles show nearly identical career records (both 10-21), similar surfaces played, and comparable recent form with multiple recent losses. There is no clear performance edge for Ava that justifies an ~84% win probability. We estimate a more realistic win probability for Ava around 60% given the parity in records and lack of injury or form advantage in the research. At that true probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.667; the current price of 1.186 offers negative expected value, so we do not recommend backing Ava nor Lavinia at current prices.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and match counts
- • Recent form shows multiple losses for both players; no clear momentum advantage
- • Current market heavily favors the home player (implied ~84%) which appears overstated