Axel Garcian vs Lorenzo Rottoli
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no value on Axel Garcian at 1.312 — the market price is too short relative to our ~62% win-probability estimate, so we recommend taking no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Garcian: ~76.2%; our estimate: 62%
- • Fair decimal price for Garcian at our estimate: ~1.613 (current 1.312 is overpriced)
Pros
- + Garcian has comparable overall experience and wins to Rottoli
- + Home favorite status likely reflects something the market values (consistency, draw, or local factors)
Cons
- - Current odds are too short to offer positive EV based on our probability estimate
- - No clear dominance in form or surface-specific edge shown in the provided research
Details
We estimate Axel Garcian is overrated by the market at 1.312 (market-implied win prob ~76.2%). Using the provided player profiles, both players have very similar career records (Garcian 24-23, Rottoli 23-19) and overlapping surface histories, with recent results showing mixed form for both and no clear dominance or H2H advantage noted in the research. Given the comparable win rates, slight recent losses for Rottoli but an otherwise even performance picture, we estimate Garcian's true win probability is around 62%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613, so the current price of 1.312 is too short and produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.312 - 1 = -0.18656). Therefore we do not recommend backing the heavy favorite at available prices.
Key factors
- • Very similar career records and match counts (Garcian 24-23 vs Rottoli 23-19)
- • Both players have experience on clay/hard/carpet; no clear surface edge shown in research
- • Market implies a much higher probability for the home player than our estimate (76.2% vs 62%)