Highlights

• • Market implies only ~21% for Renard; we estimate ~28%
• • Positive EV ≈ +0.308 per unit at available odds 4.67

Pros

• + Significant edge between our estimated probability and the market price
• + Large decimal cushion (4.67 vs required ~3.571) before value disappears

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Philippe Renard in the provided research
• - Small-sample / uncertainty risk — single-match variance in tennis is high

Details

We see the market pricing Axel Garcian as a very heavy favorite (1.163 → implied ~86%). Using the provided career and recent-form data for Garcian (24-23 career, mixed recent results on clay and other surfaces), we judge him as a competent but not overwhelming player at this level. That implies Philippe Renard's true win probability is materially higher than the market-implied 21.4% (1/4.67). Conservatively, we estimate Renard's true probability at 28%, which reflects Garcian as favored but not a near-lock given his near-50% career win rate and mixed recent form. At 28% true probability the minimum fair decimal odds are 3.571; the current market price of 4.67 therefore offers positive expected value (EV = 0.308 per unit). We prefer the away underdog only because the market has over-adjusted toward Garcian; if prices shorten toward ~3.6 or lower the value disappears.

Key factors

• • Axel Garcian's overall record near 50% (24-23) — not dominant
• • Mixed recent form on clay from the provided match data
• • Market-implied probability for the away player (21.4%) appears too low given available profile data