Aya El Sayed vs Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given the supplied data showing parity between players and no justification for the heavy favorite price, Aya El Sayed at 4.86 represents clear value versus our 50% win-probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implies Aya ~20.6% but our read of the supplied data is ~50%
- • Minimum fair odds for Aya at our estimate is 2.00; market offers 4.86
Pros
- + Large theoretical upside at current market price
- + Research supplied shows no clear basis for the heavy-market favorite
Cons
- - Limited dataset provided — no ranking, H2H details, or injury/fitness notes
- - Market may be pricing information not present in the supplied research (late withdrawal, superior ranking)
Details
We see identical career records (10-21) and similar recent activity for both players in the provided research with no injury notes or surface advantage indicated. The market price (Aya El Sayed home 4.86 / Away 1.14) implies Aya has only ~20.6% chance, but the evidence does not justify such a wide gap. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 0.50 for Aya (reflecting parity in the supplied profiles), the expected-value calculation is EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.50 * 4.86 - 1 = 1.43 (143% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal price consistent with our probability is 1/p = 2.000. Because the current market offers 4.86 (well above 2.000), we identify Aya El Sayed as a strong value bet under the constraints of the available data. Odds used for EV: 4.86; if the market includes additional unprovided information (injury, withdrawal, ranking differences), that could change our estimate.
Key factors
- • Profiles in research show effectively identical records (10-21) and recent activity
- • No injury, ranking, or surface advantage information in provided data to justify heavy favorite
- • Market strongly favors the away player (1.14) creating apparent value on the home player