Ayana Akli vs Marine Szostak
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market odds strongly undervalue Marine Szostak; at our conservative 45% estimate the away price 15.98 offers substantial positive EV, though the market discrepancy may reflect unreported information.
Highlights
- • Implied away probability by market is ~6.3% vs our 45% estimate
- • Required fair odds for a 45% true probability is ~2.222; market offers 15.98
Pros
- + Very large theoretical ROI if our probability estimate is correct
- + Players' records and surfaces suggest parity, supporting a much closer match than market implies
Cons
- - Current prices are extreme and likely reflect either a data error or unreported withdrawal/injury
- - High variance and event risk—if Ayana truly has a hidden advantage the position will be crushed
Details
We identify clear value on Marine Szostak (away) because the market prices Ayana Akli as a virtual lock (1.053, implied ~95.2%) while the available background data show near-identical career records (both ~10-21) and comparable surface experience. There is no research evidence of an injury, H2H dominance, or form gap large enough to justify a >90% implied chance for Ayana. Based on parity in records and recent results, we estimate Marine's true win probability far above the market-implied 6.3% (1/15.98). Using a conservative estimated probability of 45% for Marine, the current away price (15.98) yields very large positive EV (EV = 0.45*15.98 - 1 = 6.191). Because the quoted home price appears anomalously short, the market looks mispriced and Marine represents a value bet—subject to the caveat that the quoted lines may reflect an unreported withdrawal/injury or data error, which raises risk.
Key factors
- • Both players display nearly identical career records and surface history
- • No clear injury or form advantage in the research to justify 95%-plus favorite
- • Bookmaker pricing looks anomalously short on the home player, creating upside on the away side