Highlights

• • Book market implies Ayano 38.0% vs our 45% estimate
• • At 2.63 decimal, estimated EV ≈ +18.4% on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Current home price (2.63) exceeds our min required odds (2.222) for a positive EV
• + Both players' records and surfaces are comparable, reducing the likelihood of a strong unseen advantage for the favorite

Cons

• - Research data is limited and shows poor recent form for both players, increasing variance
• - No head-to-head or deeper match-level stats in the provided sources to refine the edge

Details

We believe Ayano Shimizu is undervalued by the market. The quoted moneyline (Ayano 2.63 => implied 38.0%) overstates Kyoka Okamura's edge despite both players having virtually identical profiles in the research (both 10-21 records, similar surface experience and recent losses). There are no injury flags or clear form advantage for Okamura in the provided data, so a fair estimated true win probability for Shimizu is higher than the market-implied 38%. Using a conservative 45% true probability produces positive expected value at the current home price (2.63). We acknowledge limited sample sizes and sparse match-level detail, so we remain conservative in our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface exposure in the provided research
• • Market prices favor the away player heavily (1.48) without supporting differences in the supplied data
• • No injuries or clear recent-form advantage for the favorite are documented in the research