Highlights

• • Home (Ayla Aksu) estimated win probability 30% vs market-implied ~17%
• • Current decimal 3.98 yields positive EV (≈+0.194) under our estimate

Pros

• + Large price discrepancy vs conservative true probability produces positive EV
• + ITF matches are volatile—underdog upsets are common enough to create value

Cons

• - Research lacks clear H2H, ranking and up-to-date injury/form details, increasing uncertainty
• - If Korneeva is indeed a strong favorite (close to market-implied probability), this bet would be losing

Details

The market price makes Alina Korneeva an ~83% favorite (1.201 decimal), which implies Ayla Aksu has only ~17% chance. The available player profiles show both players with extensive match histories and clay experience but do not present clear evidence that Korneeva is an 83%+ certainty in an ITF match; recent snippets indicate both have mixed recent results. We view the market as overpricing the favorite in a lower-tier ITF event where variance, form swings and veteran experience matter. Conservatively estimating Ayla Aksu's true win probability at 30% versus the market-implied ~17% produces positive expected value at the quoted home price (3.98). At that estimate EV = 0.30 * 3.98 - 1 = +0.194 (19.4% ROI). We recognize uncertainty in the research (no clear injury or H2H data), so this is a value-seeking play based on market overreaction to a short price rather than strong evidence that Aksu is the likely winner.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Korneeva is extremely high (~83%), leaving room for value if true edge exists
• • Both players have clay experience and long careers per profiles; lack of decisive recent-form advantage in the provided research
• • ITF-level matches have higher variance and potential for favorites to be upset, improving underdog value