Highlights

• • Korneeva favorite at 1.301 implies ~77% market probability
• • Our conservative true probability estimate (70%) makes the favorite +EV negative (-0.089)

Pros

• + Market consensus clearly identifies the favorite, which likely reflects unshown information
• + Both players have extensive career match counts in the provided profiles

Cons

• - Provided research is incomplete/duplicated and gives limited surface/H2H context
• - At available prices neither side shows positive expected value versus our conservative probabilities

Details

We see the market makes Alina Korneeva a heavy favorite at 1.301 (implied ~76.9%). The supplied profiles are sparse and nearly identical for both players, showing limited reliable recent-difference signals; both have recent losses listed and no clear surface/H2H edges in the provided data. Conservatively we estimate Korneeva's true win probability at ~70% (0.70) — below the market-implied ~77% — because the research shows recent losses and lacks confirming dominance. At 1.301 this produces a negative EV (0.70 * 1.301 - 1 = -0.089), so Korneeva is overpriced by the market for our estimate. The underdog Ayla Aksu would need a true win probability ≥~30.3% to turn the 3.3 price into positive EV; our assessment of her win chance (~30%) yields an EV near zero-to-slightly-negative, so we do not find reliable positive value on either side with the provided information.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Korneeva (1.301) but provided recent-form data shows recent losses for both players
• • Profiles in research are incomplete/duplicated; no clear surface or H2H advantage identified
• • At our conservative probability estimate, the favorite's price offers negative expected value