Ayline Esina Samardzic vs Dune Vaissaud

Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 3.30 is only ~30.3% — we estimate ~40%
• • EV at current odds is strongly positive (0.32) under our conservative model

Pros

• + Large margin between market implied probability and our conservative win-probability estimate
• + Data shows parity between players, giving advantage to the longer-priced side

Cons

• - Player data sample is small and recent form for both is poor — outcomes are volatile
• - No H2H, surface confirmation for Kayseri, or injury detail in the research to reduce uncertainty

Details

We find value backing the home player Ayline Esina Samardzic at the current decimal price of 3.30. The market implies the away Dune Vaissaud has ~76.9% win probability (1/1.3), which is inconsistent with the available data: both players show virtually identical career records (10-21), similar match counts and surfaces, and comparable recent form. There are no injury notes or clear form edges in the research that justify such a heavy market lean to the away side. Given parity in records and lack of distinguishing factors, we assess the home player’s true win probability materially above the market-implied 30.3% (implied by 3.3). Using a conservative estimated_true_probability of 0.40 for the home player produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 3.30 - 1 = 0.32 or 32% ROI). Key uncertainties that reduce confidence are the small-sample profiles, absence of H2H and surface confirmation for Kayseri, and limited match-detail granularity; we therefore grade the recommendation as medium risk despite the attractive pricing.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar match histories
• • Market heavily favors away at 1.30 despite no clear evidence of superiority in the provided data
• • No injury reports or decisive form advantage in the research; small-sample uncertainty and unknown surface in Kayseri