Highlights

• • Home player has no recorded wins and two recent losses
• • Current odds (1.37) undervalue the favorite relative to our 80% win estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds
• + Clear qualitative edge based on opponent's inexperience and poor recent form

Cons

• - We lack direct statistical or recent-data for the away player in the provided research
• - Small sample size (home player only two matches) increases model uncertainty

Details

We value the away player because the available data shows the home player, Azariah Rusher, has extremely limited match history (0-2) and two recent losses, indicating a high probability of defeat against a more established opponent. The market prices the away player at 1.37 (implied win probability ~73.0%). Given Rusher's lack of wins, short career span and recent form, we estimate the away player's true win probability materially higher at 80%. At that probability the away price represents positive expected value (EV = 0.80 * 1.37 - 1 = 0.096). We acknowledge uncertainty because we have no direct statistical profile for the away player in the provided research, so we set a conservative but favorable probability edge that still yields value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Home player Azariah Rusher has a 0-2 professional record and lost his two documented recent matches
• • Market implies away win probability ~73% while we estimate ~80% given opponent inexperience
• • Small sample size for the home player increases uncertainty but also supports a clear market edge to the favorite