Azariah Rusher vs Maximillian Mroz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on the away player (Mroz) because Rusher's 0-2 record and limited profile make the favorite price (1.44) look inflated; 2.63 for Mroz offers a substantial positive expected value.
Highlights
- • Rusher: only two pro matches, both losses — limited sample and form concerns
- • At 2.63, Mroz is priced attractively relative to our estimated win probability (67%)
Pros
- + Large theoretical edge vs. current market price (EV ~0.76 per unit)
- + Rusher's documented weaknesses and lack of wins support backing the opponent
Cons
- - Research contains no direct data on Mroz; our probability is inferred and subject to information risk
- - Small sample size for Rusher increases outcome variance and uncertainty
Details
We find clear value on the away side (Maximillian Mroz) because the market currently lists Azariah Rusher as a strong favorite at 1.44 despite the research showing Rusher has only two career matches (0-2) and recent losses. Given Rusher's extremely limited record and no positive form indicators, we believe the market is overestimating his true win probability (implied ~69.4%). Conservatively estimating Mroz's true win probability at 67%, the away price of 2.63 offers a large positive edge (EV = 0.762). The key drivers are Rusher's lack of experience and losing record, the absence of performance upside on his profile, and the bookmakers' surprisingly short price on him which creates value on Mroz.
Key factors
- • Azariah Rusher has only 2 career matches and an 0-2 record (very limited experience)
- • Rusher's recent results are losses with no positive indicators in the provided profile
- • Market prices (Rusher 1.44) appear to overstate his win probability, creating value on Mroz