Highlights

• • Market favorite (Ouakaa) implied probability: ~60.2%
• • Our estimated true probability for Ouakaa: 56.0% → break-even odds 1.786

Pros

• + We avoid a negative-expected-value wager given current prices
• + Estimate is conservative and accounts for limited, mixed recent form

Cons

• - Data available is sparse (no H2H and limited detailed match metrics)
• - If new information (injury, court conditions, line movement) appears it could change value quickly

Details

The market prices Aziz Ouakaa as the clear favorite at 1.662 (implied ~60.2%). After weighing career records, surface exposure, and recent form for both players, we estimate Ouakaa has a modest edge but not as large as the market implies. Ouakaa's greater match experience and slightly better historical win rate justify a true win probability we estimate at 56.0%. At that probability the break-even decimal price is ~1.786; the current market 1.662 is below that threshold, producing a negative expected return. Chopra's price (2.13) implies ~47.0% but our estimate for him would be below that level, so neither side presents positive EV at the available prices. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Aziz Ouakaa has more match experience and a slightly better career win rate than Keshav Chopra
• • Recent results for both players are mixed with no clear momentum advantage
• • Market-implied probability for Ouakaa (60.2%) exceeds our estimated true probability (56%), leaving no value