Highlights

• • Market implies 64.6% for Aziz (1.546) which seems high given his career win rate and recent losses
• • At 2.39, Sahtali needs ~41.8% true chance to be fair — we estimate ~46%, yielding positive EV

Pros

• + Away price (2.39) offers a clear edge versus our probability estimate
• + Sahtali's hard-court experience and smaller sample create upside not fully priced in

Cons

• - Limited and noisy data for both players at this level increases variance
• - Aziz's greater experience could still prevail; no direct H2H or injury detail is available

Details

We believe the market overstates Aziz Ouakaa's chance at 1.546 (implied 64.6%). Aziz's career win rate (roughly 38%) and recent results do not clearly support a ~65% probability on hard courts, while Toufik Sahtali's small-sample 50% record on hard suggests he is more competitive than the market indicates. Given Sahtali's comfort on hard and the volatility inherent to young/low-tier players, we estimate Sahtali's true win probability at 46%, above the market-implied 41.8% for a 2.39 price. That produces positive value at the current away price. Calculations: implied away probability = 1/2.39 = 0.418; our estimate = 0.46; EV = 0.46 * 2.39 - 1 = 0.099 (≈9.9% ROI). We therefore recommend the away moneyline only because expected_value > 0 at the current quoted price.

Key factors

• • Aziz Ouakaa's long career win rate is low (~38%) and recent results include several losses
• • Toufik Sahtali's results are limited but show competence on hard courts (small-sample volatility)
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (64.6%) appears overstated relative to form and sample sizes