B. Dessolis/M. Dessolis vs L. Sevcikova/E M. Voracek

Highlights

• • Implied market probability (1.20) = 83.3%
• • Our conservative estimate = 78% → current price yields ~-6.4% EV

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on the away side — likely the stronger pair on betting markets
• + Low variance outcome likely if additional confirming data (injury/form) were available

Cons

• - Quoted price (1.20) does not offer value versus our conservative probability estimate
• - High uncertainty due to lack of independent information on players, surface and recent form

Details

We lack independent form, surface, injury, and H2H data for this Viserba doubles match, so we adopt a conservative assessment. The market-priced away team at 1.20 implies a win probability of ~83.33%. Based on conservative assumptions about doubles variability at this level and the absence of confirming data, we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 78.0% (decimal 0.78). At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.282; the available 1.20 is therefore overpriced for the bookmaker and offers negative expectation. EV at the current price = 0.78 * 1.20 - 1 = -0.064 (approximately -6.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because expected_value is not positive at the quoted price, we do not recommend placing a bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) available — conservative estimate only
• • Market implies 83.33% for the away side (1.20), which exceeds our conservative true probability estimate
• • Doubles matches at smaller events are higher-variance; heavy market favoritism must be offset by strong evidence to back value