B. Dias/D. Romanholi vs J. Dourado/C. Melleiro
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value — the heavy favourite at 1.11 is priced tighter than our conservative win estimate (0.88), producing negative EV; the underdog would need much shorter odds than available to be profitable.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (1.11) ~90.1%; our estimate 88.0% -> negative EV
- • Home at 6.00 would need >16.67% true win probability to be valuable; we do not assign that probability
Pros
- + We use a conservative probability to avoid overestimating value
- + Clear math shows negative EV at current market prices
Cons
- - No external match data increases uncertainty and could hide actionable value
- - If inside info (injury/withdrawal) exists, market may shift quickly and change EV
Details
We find no value at the displayed prices. The market heavily favors the away pair at 1.11 (implied probability ~90.1%); given the lack of public form/injury/H2H data and typical bookmaker margin, our conservative estimated true probability for the away side is 88.0%. At that estimate the away line (1.11) produces a negative expected return (EV = 0.88 * 1.11 - 1 = -0.023). The home side at 6.00 would require a true win probability >16.67% to be profitable; we cannot justify a >16.7% probability for the underdog under the same lack of information and therefore also see negative expectation on that price. With no positive EV on either side, we recommend taking no bet.
Key factors
- • No available public form, injury, surface, or H2H data to improve probability estimates
- • Market shows an extremely strong favorite at 1.11; our conservative estimate is lower than implied probability
- • Doubles matches and lower-tier events have higher variance, increasing upset risk and bookmaker edge