B. Gadamauri/J. Sels vs A. Arnaboldi/F. Iannaccone

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 69.9% vs our estimated 65% — favourite appears over-priced for us
• • Bookmaker margin inflates market prices; neither side offers positive EV at current odds

Pros

• + Conservative, disciplined stance avoids negative EV plays
• + Clear threshold (min required odds ~1.538) to monitor for value opportunities

Cons

• - Decision based on conservative assumptions due to lack of match-specific data
• - If our probability estimate underestimates the favourite, potential missed value

Details

We have no external match data returned, so we apply a conservative, model-driven estimate. The market prices show the home pair at 1.43 (implied ~69.9%) and the away pair at 2.65 (implied ~37.7%), with an obvious bookmaker overround (~7.7%). Given the lack of corroborating information on surface, form, injuries or H2H, we conservatively estimate the home team true win probability at 65% (0.65). At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.538, which is noticeably longer than the market favourite price of 1.43. Using the current favourite price (1.43) yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.65 * 1.43 - 1 = -0.071), so the favourite is overpriced for us and not a value bet. The underdog would need a true win probability above ~37.7% to be profitable at 2.65; given our conservative view the underdog is ~35% likely, also producing negative EV. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices and would only consider backing either side if the odds drift to at least the min required decimal level consistent with our probability estimates.

Key factors

• • No web/preview/injury data returned — conclusions are conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability (home 69.9%) vs our conservative estimate (65%) indicates negative EV on favourite
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.7%) further reduces available value