B. Gadamauri/J. Sels vs G. Cadenasso/F. Romano

Highlights

• • Market-normalized home win probability ≈ 38.2%
• • Home at 2.43 yields EV ≈ -7.3% (no value)

Pros

• + We avoid wagering when the market offers no positive edge
• + Conservative, market-based approach reduces exposure to unknowns

Cons

• - If unobserved information (injury, surface advantage, recent form) exists, we may be missing an edge
• - Opportunity cost if a late market misprice emerges and is not acted on

Details

We assessed the market prices (Home 2.43, Away 1.50) and, with no external form, surface, H2H or injury data available, we conservatively revert to a market-normalized probability. Removing the bookmaker overround yields an estimated true win probability for the home side of ~38.2%. At that probability the home price (2.43) produces a negative expected return (EV ≈ -7.3% per unit). The favorite (away) is similarly priced such that it also carries a small negative EV once the margin is removed. Given the lack of independent information to justify diverging from the market and both sides showing negative EV at current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, H2H, or injury data available — must rely on market pricing
• • Market shows an overround (~7.8%); normalized probabilities give Home ≈ 38.2%, Away ≈ 61.8%
• • At our conservative probability estimate the home price (2.43) yields negative EV, so no value exists