B. George/I. Nortey vs D. Martin/N. Mashtakov

Highlights

• • De-margined win probability for Away ≈ 52.17%
• • At current away price (1.78) expected ROI ≈ -7.2%, so no value

Pros

• + Conservative, margin-adjusted approach avoids overbetting on insufficient information
• + Clear threshold provided for when a price would become +EV (Away needs ≥1.918)

Cons

• - Lack of surface, form, and injury data increases uncertainty of our probability estimate
• - Bookmaker margin is relatively large, making value harder to find

Details

We have no external scouting or injury data, so we apply a conservative de-margin approach to the quoted prices. The market quotes: Home 1.94 (implied 51.55%) and Away 1.78 (implied 56.18%); the two-way implied book sums to ~107.73% (margin ~7.7%). De-margining yields estimated true probabilities of ~47.84% (Home) and ~52.17% (Away). Using the market favorite (Away) price of 1.78, the de-margined probability produces a negative expected value: EV = 0.521651 * 1.78 - 1 = -0.07165 (≈ -7.16% ROI). Both sides are priced inside the bookmaker margin and offer no positive EV under conservative assumptions, so we do not recommend a bet. The min required decimal odds to make the market-favorite (Away) +EV at our probability would be ~1.918; the current 1.78 is short of that threshold.

Key factors

• • No external research available — use conservative de-margined implied probabilities
• • Bookmaker margin (~7.7%) removes value on both sides after de-margining
• • Market slightly favors D. Martin/N. Mashtakov, but price is still below our required odds for +EV