Highlights

• • Away implied probability from market: ~91.7%
• • Our conservative true probability: 90.0% → fair odds ~1.111

Pros

• + Market accurately reflects heavy favoritism — low variance if outcome follows expectation
• + Avoids taking a short-priced favorite that carries negative expected value

Cons

• - If our conservative probability underestimates the favorite (true p > 91.7%), a small positive edge could exist but current evidence is insufficient
• - Lack of external data increases uncertainty in the probability estimate

Details

We estimate the away pair is a very strong favorite given the market price (1.09 decimal = ~91.7% implied). With no external data returned and to avoid overconfidence, we use a conservative true-win probability of 90.0% for the away side. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.111, which is higher than the current 1.09, so the available price offers negative expected value. The home side at 6.75 implies an extremely low win probability (~14.8%) which we also consider unlikely enough to present any value given the heavy market skew toward the away team. Therefore we recommend no bet because the favorite’s price is juiced below our conservative estimate of true probability.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the away team (1.09 decimal → ~91.7% implied)
• • No external scouting/injury/form data returned; we apply conservative probability assumptions
• • Required fair price (~1.111) is above the current quote, so the current favorite price is negative EV