B. Straszewska/K. Wysoczanska vs E. Czapulak/J. Daroszewska
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the away pair at 4.7 based on a conservative 23% estimated win chance; the price exceeds our break-even threshold (4.348).
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (book) = 21.3%; our estimate = 23.0%
- • Estimated ROI at current price = +8.1%
Pros
- + Current odds (4.7) are above our conservative fair-price threshold
- + Doubles and lower-tier events have higher upset variability, supporting slight underdog value
Cons
- - No match-specific data available (form, injuries, H2H) — increased uncertainty
- - Edge is modest; sensitive to small changes in true probability estimate
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative, data-sparse estimate of true win chance. The book gives the home side 1.17 (implied ~85.5%) and the away side 4.7 (implied ~21.3%). Given we have no additional form, injury, or head-to-head data, we assume some extra variance typical of doubles and smaller events and conservatively assign the away pair a 23.0% true win probability. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~4.348, meaning the available price of 4.7 represents positive expected value. Specifically EV = 0.23 * 4.7 - 1 = +0.081 (8.1% ROI). The recommendation is cautious: we take the away side only because the quoted price exceeds our conservative break-even threshold; if additional information (injury, clear mismatch, or surface advantage) became available we would re-evaluate.
Key factors
- • Market implies heavy favoritism for home (1.17) leaving long price on away (4.7)
- • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we apply conservative variance for doubles
- • Small-event doubles matches can produce more upsets; slight edge needed to justify backing underdog