B. Caldera Sanchez/C. Goenaga Garcia vs A. Sánchez Fallada/P. Josemaria Martin

Highlights

• • Away heavily favored at 1.10 (market implies ~90.9% win chance)
• • Conservative estimated home win probability: 12%, implying required odds ≈ 8.333 for value

Pros

• + We use a conservative probability to avoid overestimating upset chances
• + Clear EV calculation shows both sides are negative at current prices

Cons

• - No match-specific information (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) to refine probabilities
• - Market could be mispriced in ways we cannot detect without data; our conservative stance may miss rare mispricings

Details

We have no external match data and must proceed conservatively. The market prices heavily favor the away pair at 1.10 (implied ~90.9%) with the home underdog at 6.50 (implied ~15.4%). With no surface, form, injury or H2H information, we assume a conservative true win probability for the home side of 12.0% (0.12) — slightly below the market-implied 15.4% because the market is overwhelmingly one-sided and likely embeds bookmaker margin. At that probability the home-side EV at the quoted 6.50 would be 0.12*6.5 - 1 = -0.22 (a -22% ROI), so it is not value. The away side, implied at ~90.9%, would require a true win probability above ~90.9% to be profitable at 1.10; our conservative estimate for the away side (1 - 0.12 = 0.88) yields EV = 0.88*1.10 - 1 = -0.032 (about -3.2% ROI). Neither side shows positive expected value at the current prices, so we recommend no bet. We would require much longer odds on the home side (≥ 8.333) to consider a value play given our conservative probability.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — must use conservative assumptions
• • Market is extremely one-sided (away 1.10) implying low upside for betting favorite
• • At our conservative home probability (12%) current home price 6.5 yields negative EV