B. Jones/H. Stewart vs C. Bittoun Kouzmine/J. Seeman

Highlights

• • Estimated true away win probability 62% vs market-implied ~57%
• • Current away odds (1.75) exceed our break-even odds (1.613), giving positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (≈8.5% ROI)
• + Market may be under-adjusted for B. Jones' poor recent performance

Cons

• - Insufficient public data on the partners (H. Stewart, C. Bittoun Kouzmine, J. Seeman) and head-to-head
• - Uncertainty about surface/conditions and match-level factors increases variance

Details

Market-implied probabilities: Home 1.98 -> 50.5%, Away 1.75 -> 57.1%. B. Jones' available profile shows a weak overall record (10-21) and recent poor form; that reduces confidence in the home pairing. We lack direct data on H. Stewart and on the opposing pair, but given Jones' negative form and the market pricing, we estimate the true chance that the away team wins is roughly 62%, which is meaningfully above the market's ~57.1% implied probability. At the quoted away decimal odds of 1.75 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.75 - 1 = +0.085 or 8.5% ROI). The required fair decimal odds for our estimate is 1.613, and the current 1.75 exceeds that threshold, creating value. Key caveat: limited information on partners and surface increases uncertainty, so EV is identified but with moderate risk.

Key factors

• • B. Jones' poor overall record (10-21) and recent form weakness
• • Market odds imply the away side is favored but possibly underpriced relative to Jones' form
• • Significant data gaps on partners and surface increase uncertainty