B. Mihulka/A. Sycamore vs E. Kim/Yuna Ohashi

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1/1.57 = 63.7%) exceeds our estimated true probability (60%).
• • Ohashi's recent results and form profile pull the market toward the home side but don't create positive value at available odds.

Pros

• + Market correctly discounts the underperforming player (Ohashi), aligning with our view that home is favored.
• + We use conservative probability estimates due to limited data on the home pair, reducing overconfidence risk.

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.57) is too low to offer positive EV versus our estimated win probability.
• - Scarcity of detailed matchup/doubles-specific data for the home team increases uncertainty in our probability estimate.

Details

We estimate the home duo (B. Mihulka/A. Sycamore) has roughly a 60% chance to win (p=0.60) based on the market favoring them and the available negative signals on E. Kim/Yuna Ohashi — notably Ohashi's poor recent form (10-21 on record with multiple recent losses). The market-implied probability for the home side at decimal 1.57 is about 63.7%, which is higher than our estimate and leaves no value on the favorite. At our probability (0.60) the break-even odds are 1.667; the current market price of 1.57 is too short, producing a negative expected return (EV = 0.60*1.57 - 1 = -0.058). We also considered the opposite selection (away at 2.28) and judged the away true probability nearer to 0.40, which also yields negative EV at available odds. Given limited data on the home pairing and surface specifics, we remain conservative: no side offers positive expected value at the current quotes.

Key factors

• • Yuna Ohashi's recent form: poor win-loss (10-21) and consecutive losses leading into this match
• • Market prices favor the home pair (1.57) and imply a higher win probability than our estimate
• • Limited publicly-available data on the home pairing increases model uncertainty