B. Oliveira/G. Roveri Sidney vs B. Braga/V. Braga

Highlights

• • Market implies ~79.4% win chance for the home pair
• • Conservative estimated true probability: 78.0% → negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Favorite is heavily priced and likely the stronger side
• + Market is clear and stable (short price) which usually reflects consensus

Cons

• - Current price (1.26) is shorter than our breakeven requirement (1.282)
• - Lack of data on surface, form, injuries and H2H increases uncertainty and argues for caution

Details

We assign a conservative true-win probability to the heavy favorite given the absence of external data and the short market price. The market-implied probability at decimal 1.26 is ~79.4%. With no surface, form, injury, or H2H details available, we reduce our confidence and estimate the true probability at 78.0%, which is slightly below the market-implied figure. That yields a negative expected value at the current price (EV ≈ -0.017), so there is no value to back the favorite at 1.26. To consider taking the favorite we would need a price at or above the calculated breakeven decimal (1.282) to achieve a non-negative edge.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.26) is about 79.4%
• • No external form, surface, injury or H2H data available — we downweight confidence
• • Our conservative estimated probability (78.0%) is slightly below the market price, producing a small negative EV