B. Oliveira/G. Roveri Sidney vs L. Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio/L. Storck Franca

Highlights

• • Book market implies ~7.7% for the away; our conservative estimate is 6.0%
• • Away would require odds ~16.667 to be a positive expectation at our estimate

Pros

• + Market offers a very large payout on the away (13.0) if an upset occurs
• + Clear thresholds make it easy to identify value if new information appears

Cons

• - At current prices and our conservative probability, the underdog is negative EV
• - No match-specific info (surface, form, injuries) to justify overruling market odds

Details

We see an extreme market price skew: the home pair is priced at 1.03 while the away pair is 13.0. With no external research available, we adopt conservative assumptions and estimate the away pair's true win probability at 6.0% (0.06). At that probability the fair decimal price would be 16.667, meaning the current 13.0 does not offer positive expected value. We therefore do not recommend a bet. For transparency we computed EV using the quoted away odds (13.0) and our conservative probability: EV = 0.06 * 13.0 - 1 = -0.22 (a loss of 0.22 units per unit staked). The market-implied probability for the away side is about 7.69%, so the away would need a true probability above ~7.692% to become profitable at current odds. Given the lack of matchup/surface/injury data and the extremely short price on the favorite, we prefer to avoid taking the underdog on presumed value alone.

Key factors

• • Extreme market favoritism: home 1.03 vs away 13.0
• • No independent research available — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Underdog needs >7.692% true chance (decimal 13.0 breakeven) to be +EV