BB Team vs Nigma Galaxy
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive EV on Nigma Galaxy at 3.06 based on a conservative 33% true win probability versus the market's normalized ~31.0%; the edge is thin and high-risk.
Highlights
- • Normalized market away probability ≈ 31.0%; our conservative estimate = 33.0%.
- • EV at current price is small but positive (≈0.98% ROI per unit).
Pros
- + Quoted away price (3.06) exceeds our min-required odds (3.030) for a 33% win probability.
- + Bet exploits a slight market mispricing after accounting for book vig.
Cons
- - Edge is marginal and sensitive to small estimation errors in win probability.
- - No match-specific intel available (maps, recent form, roster), raising uncertainty—higher chance our 33% is incorrect.
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to our conservative estimate. The raw market implies Home win ≈ 72.9% (1/1.372) and Away win ≈ 32.7% (1/3.06); the two-way overround is ≈ 5.6%, which normalizes to Home ≈ 69.0% and Away ≈ 31.0%. Given the absence of additional information (form, roster changes, map pool specifics) we make a conservative true-probability estimate for Nigma Galaxy (away) of 33.0%. That is slightly above the normalized market-implied probability (31.0%), producing a small positive edge. At the quoted away price of 3.06, our estimate yields positive expected value (EV = 0.33 * 3.06 - 1 ≈ 0.0098). The advantage is marginal and sensitive to small changes in our win-probability estimate, so this is a thin value bet rather than a decisive overlay.
Key factors
- • Market-implied and normalized probabilities show away at ~31.0%; our conservative estimate places away at 33.0%.
- • No additional match-specific information (form, roster/injury notes, map advantage) increases uncertainty; we remain conservative.
- • Edge is small; profitability depends on accuracy of the 33% estimate and the quoted 3.06 price holding.