BIG vs OG
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value present at current prices; OG is a market favorite but not enough edge vs our conservative estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • OG market price (1.588) implies ~63% win chance; our conservative estimate is 60%
- • Required decimal for positive EV on OG is ~1.667 — current price is shorter
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a favorite (OG), simplifying probability comparison
- + Conservative approach avoids overbetting on incomplete information
Cons
- - Insufficient external data (roster/form/maps) increases model uncertainty
- - Bookmaker margin (~4.8%) erodes potential value at current prices
Details
Market prices make OG the clear favorite (decimal 1.588, implied ~62.97%) while BIG is priced at 2.39 (implied ~41.84%); the book margin is roughly 4.8%. With no external research available we apply a conservative assessment: OG is likely stronger but not by as much as the market implies. We estimate OG's true win probability at 60% (less than the market-implied ~63%), which still does not produce positive expected value at the supplied away price. At OG 1.588 our EV = 0.60*1.588 - 1 = -0.0472 (negative). To find a value bet on OG we would need at least decimal 1.667. Similarly, to justify a bet on BIG we would have to believe BIG's true win probability is ≥~41.8%+ (we lack evidence to support raising our BIG estimate enough to create value). Given limited data and a modest overround, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities: OG ~62.97%, BIG ~41.84% (book margin ~4.8%)
- • No external/team-specific data available — we adopt a conservative true probability
- • At our conservative estimate OG (60%) is underpriced relative to breakeven odds (1.667)
- • Uncertainty around rosters, form, maps and venue increases variance