Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for KT Rolster: ~68.2%
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 70.0%, yielding ~2.55% ROI

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Recommendation is conservative and modest in magnitude

Cons

• - Edge is small—high sensitivity to any late-breaking team news or changes
• - Research lacked match-specific reports (form, injuries, roster) which raises uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative estimate of the true win chance. The current moneyline implies KT Rolster has a 68.2% chance to win (1/1.465). With no injury, lineup, or form information available from research, we adopt a cautious model that gives the market favorite a slight edge over the implied probability: estimated true probability 70.0%. At the quoted away price (1.465) this produces a small positive expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.465 - 1). We recommend KT Rolster only because the projected true win probability exceeds the market-implied probability enough to produce positive EV at the available odds; the edge is small and contingent on the absence of negative team news.

Key factors

• • Market currently favors the away side (KT Rolster) at decimal 1.465
• • No available injury/lineup or negative news to reduce the favorite’s chance
• • Conservative model assigns the favorite a small edge above market-implied probability