Highlights

• • Estimated BOOM win probability: 54.5%
• • Breakeven decimal for value: 1.835 vs market 1.80 → negative edge

Pros

• + Home-side assumption gives BOOM a small edge in our conservative model
• + Market prices are standard and widely available

Cons

• - No researchable data (form, roster, H2H, injuries) to support a larger edge
• - Current price is slightly shorter than our required price for value, producing a negative EV

Details

We have no external form, roster, or H2H data to refine a model, so we apply a conservative assessment. The market prices are Home 1.80 (implied ~55.6%) and Away 2.03 (implied ~49.3%); after accounting for market juice those imply a balanced market. We estimate BOOM (home) has a modest true win probability of 54.5% thanks to home-side advantage and the absence of disqualifying information. At that probability the breakeven decimal is 1.835, which is slightly above the current home price of 1.80, producing a small negative EV (≈ -0.019 per 1 unit staked). Given the narrow margin and lack of supporting data, there is no reliable value at the posted prices, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external/team/injury/form data available — we use conservative assumptions
• • Home advantage estimated to be modest, producing a 54.5% true probability
• • Current market price (1.80) is slightly shorter than our breakeven (1.835) so no positive edge