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Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears play on 2025-10-26 17:00 in the NFL (american football). Compare american football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 29.2%. Suggested side: Chicago Bears. Moneyline — Home: 1.37 (73.0%), Away: 3.4 (29.4%).
Our lean: Chicago Bears. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.37, Away: 3.4. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Chicago Bears moneyline given current prices.
We compare the market-implied probabilities (Ravens 1.37 -> ~73.0%, Bears 3.40 -> ~29.4%) to our assessment. Public research shows Baltimore is 1-5 while Chicago is 4-2, and Lamar Jackson's availability is uncertain (hamstring concern)—a binary event that the market appears to be pricing as if Jackson will play. We view the injury uncertainty and Baltimore's poor form as meaningfully reducing the Ravens' true win probability versus the market. Conservatively, we estimate Chicago's true win probability at 38%, which is materially higher than the market-implied ~29.4% for the away moneyline of 3.40. At 3.40 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.38 * 3.40 - 1 = +0.292), so the Bears offer value given current prices. We prefer the away ML only because the price sufficiently overstates the Ravens' chances when accounting for QB uncertainty and Baltimore's 1-5 form despite home field.
Summary: We find value on the Bears moneyline at 3.40 because uncertainty around Lamar Jackson and Baltimore's 1-5 form make the market price for the Ravens too short; Bears estimated win probability ~38% implies ~29% edge at current odds.