Baltimore RavensVSChicago Bears

Who will win Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears?

Our lean: Chicago Bears. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears?

Home: 1.37, Away: 3.4. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears?

Best bet: Chicago Bears moneyline given current prices.

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Ravens 1.37 -> ~73.0%, Bears 3.40 -> ~29.4%) to our assessment. Public research shows Baltimore is 1-5 while Chicago is 4-2, and Lamar Jackson's availability is uncertain (hamstring concern)—a binary event that the market appears to be pricing as if Jackson will play. We view the injury uncertainty and Baltimore's poor form as meaningfully reducing the Ravens' true win probability versus the market. Conservatively, we estimate Chicago's true win probability at 38%, which is materially higher than the market-implied ~29.4% for the away moneyline of 3.40. At 3.40 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.38 * 3.40 - 1 = +0.292), so the Bears offer value given current prices. We prefer the away ML only because the price sufficiently overstates the Ravens' chances when accounting for QB uncertainty and Baltimore's 1-5 form despite home field.