Barbora Krejcikova / Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Blinkova / Makoto Ninomiya

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 82.6% (1.211) vs our 50% estimate
• • Need >=2.00 decimal odds to achieve positive EV given our probability

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home pair (short price indicates market confidence)
• + If there is hidden info not in the research (e.g., top doubles pedigree), the favorite could still be closer to correct

Cons

• - Available research provides no concrete advantage for the home side; recent form appears similar across players
• - At 1.211 the home side yields a substantially negative expected return (-0.395 for a 1-unit stake)

Details

We find no value on either side. The market prices the home team at 1.211 (implied win probability ~82.6%), but the supplied research shows nearly identical recent form and records for all four players with no clear advantage for the home pair. With no injury, H2H, or surface edge data in the research to justify such a heavy favorite, we estimate the match as roughly even (50/50). At our estimated true probability the home price is far too short, producing a negative expected return. Therefore we recommend no bet unless odds reach the minimum required threshold for value.

Key factors

• • Research shows effectively identical recent form and records for all four players—no clear edge
• • Market-implied probability for the home side (1.211) is ~82.6%, far above our 50% estimate
• • No injuries, H2H, or surface advantage provided in research to justify the short price