Highlights

• • Normalized market probability for Veleva (away) ≈ 54.0%
• • EV at current favorite price (1.72) is ≈ -7.1% (no value)

Pros

• + Market prices are consistent and not showing a large, obvious misprice
• + Conservative normalization reduces false positives when information is sparse

Cons

• - Small potential edges could exist if additional insider/form/surface info were available
• - Tight margin around break-even means small information edges would change decision

Details

We conservatively normalize the market to remove the bookmaker margin and arrive at an estimated true probability for Viktoria Veleva (away) of ~54.0% and Barbora Michálková (home) ~46.0%. The current decimal prices (Home 2.02, Away 1.72) imply probabilities of ~49.5% and ~58.1% respectively; after removing the ~7.6% overround we use the normalized probabilities as our best neutral estimate. At our estimate (p_away = 0.540) the EV on the favorite at 1.72 is negative (EV = 0.540 * 1.72 - 1 ≈ -0.071), and the underdog at 2.02 is likewise negative (EV ≈ -0.071). Given the lack of independent information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H and the small margin of loss, we decline to recommend a side because neither price offers positive expected value versus our conservative probability estimates.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities (Home 49.5%, Away 58.1%) contain ~7.6% overround
• • Normalization to remove overround yields Away ~54.0%, Home ~46.0% as conservative true estimates
• • No independent data on surface, form, injuries or H2H available—use conservative neutral assumptions